Our Converging Crises
What’s our predicament?
To put it simply… it’s overpopulation, food insecurity, peak energy, climate breakdown, biological annihilation, economic inequality, and the potential for war and social unrest.
Our population has grown exponentially beyond a sustainable level.
Because we are farming almost all of the available agricultural land in the world.
And current production amounts are only possible due to synthetic fertilizers and fossil fuel powered, agro-industry.
So our food sources are entirely dependent on fossil fuels and industry, and there’s no room for expansion.
Fossil fuels are becoming harder to obtain:
Oil extraction started with flowing wells and now we’re scratching the bottom of the barrel with deep water drilling, fracking, oil sands etc. The energy return on energy invested of fossil fuels is declining.1EROI of different fuels
On the other hand, burning fossil fuels at our current scale leads to climate breakdown.
Renewables can’t replace a big share of the energy needs of civilization because of many limitations. In fact they haven’t displaced fossil fuels, but only added to them.2Do alternative energy sources displace fossil fuels? There’s just no other fuel as convenient as black gold.
Our food supply is quite fragile.It is grown in areas that will suffer increasing draughts, floods, and other natural disasters due to global warming.
Climate breakdown is developing faster than expected and it’s already intensifying natural disasters near you. A warmer Earth leads to a less stable environment for agriculture and leads to mass extinction.4Co-extinctions during extreme environmental change
Natural disasters, draughts, sea level rise, heatwaves, famine and other direct and indirect consequences of climate change have the potential to kill and displace billions of people this century.
Biological annihilation is a massive crisis, and underestimating its consequences is a mistake. It’s difficult to foresee how the sixth mass extinction will impact our civilization. But our spaceship Earth is interconnected in ways that we will never understand.
The fact that we are killing so many plants and animals through habitat destruction and global warming is alarming.
One thing we now for sure is that if we destroy phytoplanktom, insects, and other key organisms, then other plants and animals will succumb as well. Most likely including the ones we need for sustenance.
The increasing economic inequality makes it harder for us to respond to collapse and it is a big problem by itself. The elites are in the let them eat cake phase. And most of the population is too distracted or busy dealing with their own rat race and challenges to take matters into their own hands.
These converging crises will likely lead to a global societal collapse within the next twenty years (± ten years).
A collapse of our industrial food production and global trade will mean a dramatic decrease in population.
The pre-industrial Earth had about half a billion humans…
We’re in a pickle.
Many of you will think “let’s enjoy our time while we can”.
And you are not wrong.
But when things get serious and our instincts kick in, some of us will seek survival against all odds. Some of us will endure terrible conditions and do anything to subsist.
If we don’t respond now, it will be too late to respond in an appropriate way.
It pays off to accept and act while things are stable.
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