Where are we heading according to the latest climate models?
Temperature projections according to the latest climate models (for the next IPCC report)
I found a scientific article called: Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6 published in 2019.
Few things that struck me:
Almost all scenarios surpass 2 degrees (what is considered the point of no return) by 2060 and most by 2050. The only scenario that avoids the point of no return is the over-optimistic, SSP1 (Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation).
Other thing that struck me is an overshoot scenario:
SSP5-3.4-OS studies a scenario in which there is large overshoot in emissions by mid-century followed by the implementation of policy tools to limit warming in the latter half of the century.
The SSP5-3.4-OS scenario follows the highest emissions scenario (unlikely to happen due to resource constraints) up to 2040 and then through the use of “policies”, it brings the emissions and temperature back down to 2.1 degrees (past the point of no return).
Those policies include the use of technologies, that do not exist, are not scalable, don’t make sense in a thermodynamic way, and that need a perfectly coordinated global effort to work. These are the same technologies included in SSP1, the best case scenario in terms of a rapid wartime mobilization towards net zero emissions.
According to this hypothetical overshoot scenario our so called “decision makers” now have an excuse (ethically unjustified) to keep BAU, procrastinate while they fill their pockets and then die of old age, and future “decision makers” will have to rely on the magic fairy (carbon capture) to reduce emissions 20 years down the road.
Our society and scientists have such a narrow, myopic focus, that collapse is a guarantee.
An intelligent, hollistic, and wise society, would have an interdisciplinary panel on climate change that includes the general public (stakeholders also representing future generations) along with scientists, and academics from all areas: engineering, philosophy, biology, culture, arts, advertising, social sciences, geology, etc.
Instead our childish, oligarchical society has economists, politicians, and hyper-specialized climate scientists in the IPCC studying how to maintain economic growth in a world being killed by economic growth.
What could go wrong?
Basically the models say that by 2030 we’ll pass 1.5 degrees (catastrophic for millions) and by 2050 we’ll pass 2 degrees (catastrophic for billions). By 2100 we can expect anything above 2 degrees and below 5 degrees.
*But change has been happening faster than expected.
Realistically speaking, under a converging crises predicament, our civilization will follow more closely the blue path (SSP2 4.5, RCP 4.5) until it undergoes the rapid phase of collapse. Which is not a consolation because it still puts us above the point of no return (and likely threshold for hothouse Earth), checkmate.
SSP1 Sustainability – Taking the Green Road (Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
SSP2 Middle of the Road (Medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
SSP3 Regional Rivalry – A Rocky Road (High challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
SSP4 Inequality – A Road Divided (Low challenges to mitigation, high challenges to adaptation)
SSP5 Fossil-fueled Development – Taking the Highway (High challenges to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation)
You can check the scientific article with more graphics here: Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6
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